NFL Football

 

Here are the final ratings for the 2015 NFL season.  The difference between two teams' ratings is a point spread.  Home field advantage is approximately 2.5 points.  An average NFL team has a rating of 20.  

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Key

Rating- Power rating

Rank- Power rating rank

Wins- Current wins

Losses- Current losses

Proj. W- Average projected wins.  This depends on the team's current rating, their current record, and their remaining schedule.  

Proj. L- Average projected losses.  This depends on the team's current rating, their current record, and their remaining schedule. 

Win out- The percent chance that the team wins the rest of their regular season games.  This depends on their current rating, and their remaining schedule.  

Lose out- The percent chance that the team loses the rest of their regular season games.  This depends on their current rating, and their remaining schedule.  

Best- the number of wins the team will finish the regular season with in a best-case (95th percentile) scenario.  

Worst- the number of wins the team will finish the regular season with in a worst-case (5th percentile) scenario.   

pSOS- Strength of schedule for games that the team has already played this season.  The number represents the rating a hypothetical team would have to win approximately 50% of their games against the given team's schedule.

fSOS- Strength of schedule for games to be played during the remainder of the regular season.  The number represents the rating a hypothetical team would have to win approximately 50% of their games against the given team's schedule.

Poff. %- the chance that the team makes the playoffs this year, according to 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.  These are updated every week, usually on Tuesdays.  

Poll Index- a simple metric designed to estimate a team's ranking in power rankings, depending on winning percentage, pythagorean winning percentage, and strength of schedule.  This does not take preseason expectation or head-to-head matchups into account, which are big factors in power rankings.